wide receiver routes run stats

However, he finds himself atop this list because of his league-leading 396 receiving yards and five touchdowns on go routes, which came as a result of 13 receptions and a 4.6 percent catch rate above expectation on such routes. Last year, Still averaged 1.29 YPRR, Johnson 1.56. There are always going to be outliers on both ends of the spectrum for every statistic and measurable. For example, if there is a cornerback covering a receiver and a safety deep above him who matches the receiver's pattern much more than any other receiver, that receiver is credited with extra attention. Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. A note: all yards per route run data collected from www.pff.com. Seals-Jones is a strong ADP value, currently being drafted in the 15th round in MFL10s. In his six games before that, though, Aiyuk was one of the most productive wide receivers in the league, generating 2.44 yards per route run and an 86.3 receiving grade. Thats somewhat shocking and perhaps it explains why the number of Landrys short targets dropped by nearly half after he moved to the analytics-friendly Cleveland Browns. With the help of player-tracking technology, the Next Gen Stats Analytics team set out to answer that exact question, decoding one of the key elements of an offensive play call by using player-tracking data to measure which routes pass catchers are running on any given pass play. As were using air yards the vertical yards on a pass attempt relative to the line of scrimmage this bucket includes passes behind the line of scrimmage. Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Ricky Seals-Jones celebrates after catching a pass for a second quarter touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars at University of Phoenix Stadium. Now, by definition, if yards per target is less sticky than yards per route run, than targets per route run has to be the stickiest. His reception total was also the most in the NFL on go routes (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route). How will Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury factor into Sunday's AFC championship rematch between the Chiefs and Bengals? I believe player profile has them too. The type of play call matters, too. He was historically productive in 2019, in large part because he is excellent in the short game on routes like the cross (a.k.a. The model was trained and validated against all routes from every passing play from 2018 and '19, including both the regular season and the postseason. Let's dig into the methodology behind the Route Recognition model: The Next Gen Stats player-tracking system records the x-y location, speed, acceleration, direction and orientation of all 22 players on the field in real time. $4.99/mo Join FO+. Of course, when comparing Stills numbers to Johnsons, one might note that Johnson was playing with EJ Manuel and Thaddeus Lewis while Stills was playing with Drew Brees, which provides some explanation for the drastic differences between the two receivers in yards per target. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses its newly launched Expected Return Yards model to identify the top 10 returners of the 2022 regular season. We can study league-wide trends to gain a new understanding of offensive strategy and tendencies, and we can break down and rank individual players by advanced performance metrics. For instance, DeAndre Hopkins played on over 90 percent of his teams snaps in every game he played last year. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. This route is a little easier to explain, primarily because of one infallible truth: Everyone loves the long ball. Those metrics have offered a new way to see a part of football that largely goes unnoticed -- or at least unquantified. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. While Johnson had the worst year of his career since becoming a Bills starter, he still managed to pull down targets on 25% of his snaps. How do we know which is which? For example, if the tracking data indicates a pass will be completed 75% of the time and the receiver actually catches the pass, he is credited with plus-0.25. Each score is on a 0-99 scale, where 50 is roughly league average. This makes it very easy for us to compare the two statistics: essentially, the question boils down to how valuable it is to know a receivers number of Targets per Route Run. The best fit formula is: N+1 Yd/Tar = 5.84 + 0.28 * Yr N Yd/Tar (R^2 = 0.08). PFFs Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position. The receiver is credited (or debited) for the yardage beyond (or below) that benchmark, rather than the raw yards after catch gained. Bruce Arians offense wasnt very conducive toward fantasy success at the tight end position, ranking last in targets and fantasy points among all teams over the past three years. Titans quarterback Will Levis opens up about emotional draft day. And the ultimate goal of every route is to create enough separation from a defender to earn a target and make a catch. Since depth of target is so important in determining separation, we grouped plays into buckets depending on whether a pass attempt was short, intermediate or deep and created an SOE leaderboard for each. Danielr28 2 yr. ago. Previous post: Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, Next post: The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To. The idea was that NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data could estimate the chance of a completion on a pass, given the locations, directions and speeds of relevant players. His 207 yards gained on post routes ranked sixth in the league, and he was one of only two receivers to break 200 yards on less than 10 receptions on post routes in 2019 (the other was DeVante Parker, who ranks second in this grouping). 38) Yards Per Route Run. His six drops were the 22nd most from wide receivers. Seriously, though, it can't be much of a surprise to see these three players at the top for this route. You can find me on Twitter @TheBauerClub, and consider subscribing to my podcast, DynastyTheory. However, Thomas is ranked atop this group because of his three touchdowns scored on slants, and his catch rate of 87.9 percent is also best among any receiver with 10 or more targets in the NFL. This can give us a small insight into wide receivers either with partial seasons (injury, etc.) Backs typically run swing routes, check downs and screens, which don't require excellent route-running skills but do rely on yards after catch for success. Below, we'll reveal the top three receivers for eight different routes, and tell you why the No. If we wanted to predict each players Yards per Route Run in 2014 [4]Ignoring the fact that Johnson is now a 49er, of course. Because he was below average for this data set, and everyone in the set gets regressed to the mean of the group, he benefits. Who has the edge? 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? But Thomass numbers are still eye-popping, and his peers in the NFL recently ranked him first among all wide receivers (and fifth overall) in the NFL 100. We think these weights make logical sense, in that a receiver has to get open to have the chance to make a catch. Stat Format. In other words, YPRR already incorporates Yards per Target, but it adjusts that statistic for Targets Per Route Run. No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. or on teams regularly employing multiple WRs on the field. Who knows, but that at least explains why Jernigan was on the list. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. 1-ranked player for each was the best running that particular route. If you are looking for the raw data behind this article, do not hesitate to reach out. At 6-feet, 226 pounds, Brown wins with size, speed and power. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? [3]In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. Which view is correct? These statistics provide a detailed view of how a WR accumulates Perhaps its no surprise that in the ultimate team sport, assigning credit for something even as seemingly straightforward as separation is complicated. The problem is we would be measuring receiver success accounting for the dynamic context of what is happening on the field. You can't go wrong with any of these guys when throwing deep over the middle. If what RTMs measure are truly intrinsic to each individual receiver, then receivers should carry these qualities from year to year. Since the only difference between YPRR and Y/T is the metric targets per route run, its worth asking: is Targets Per Route Run a metric worth looking at? (You can access our route data for wide receivers here, running backs here, and tight ends here, if youre a PFF Elite subscriber.). Still, it's encouraging to have a strong correlation with real-world production. We can break down statistics as simple as receiving yards all the way to air yards and even more in-depth measurables such as BMI, which seems to be a hot topic this offseason. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2023 season! So how much insight can we gather from a wide receivers yards per route in his rookie year? It wasn't his frame but his footwork -- a fake outside, an adjustment upfield and a sharp cut at the top of the route -- that created the space necessary for a 51-yard catch-and-run on that play. Do Not Sell My Personal Information, Next Up - 2023 Superflex Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (Fantasy Football), 189 K. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? Deep targets (at least 15 air yards) are the most valuable in football on a per-play basis, but theyre also the throws with the tightest windows. NFL's Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. He saw significant time in games sporadically throughout the year. Jones averaged 6.0 fewer routes run per game than Hopkins over this stretch. Year-over-year r-squared of 0.13, n = 53 player season pairs from 2017-2019.